Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Oscar predictions processing - or, not ready to commit!

It's a snow day here in Oxford, MS. Which means that I should probably take PTO and watch movies all day, but whether or not that happens, I will be doing an interview at 9:20CST on 93.7 Super Talk. If you want to follow along, you can listen here: Super Talk 93.7.

For the first part of the segment I will be talking about addiction and spikes in calls/treatment in January v/s the rest of the year. Then - Oscar talk!

In preparation for that interview I think it's best for me to go ahead and think about predictions.

Nominations ballots were due on Friday, the 12th, so whatever the feeling was on that day, that week (for the first time I can remember, nominations voting was only 7 days!), that's the barometer by which we need to measure our predictions.

For example, the James Franco accusations vaguely broke on Golden Globes night and began to hit the presses in the following days. I've said before there are two types of people when it comes to action. Those who get things out of the way and those who wait till the last minute. I'm guessing it's a 50/50 deal. Which means Franco is in, probably in the 5th slot with either Denzel Washington or Christian Bale behind.

These aren't my official predictions, y'all. This is me sorting things out. Let's look at the major categories. I'm going to rank them in order of likelihood.

Original Screenplay
This, along with Best Actress, are probably the deepest categories. I think this is going to be a year when my two favorite films take one prize each. And they will be screenplay. I have felt buzz for "The Big Sick" waning in the past few weeks, and have heard other people say that "The Shape of Water"'s screenplay is its weakest element. Sure...occasionally the film with the most nominations (as is expected with "The Shape of Water," thought don't discount "Three Billboards" misses in screenplay. But I can't see it.

"Get Out," Jordan Peele
"Lady Bird," Greta Gerwig
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri," Martin McDonagh
"The Shape of Water," Guillermo del Toro
"The Big Sick," Kmail Nanjani and Emily V. Gordon

"Phantom Thread," Paul Thomas Anderson
"I, Tonya," Steven Rogers

Adapted Screenplay
This is probably the hardest one to predict. Everyone is saying that this is "Call Me By Your Name"'s to lose. But to who? Sorkin for "Molly's Game" has to come in second. There is so much love for "Mudbound," I'm thinking it's in. But don't discount Sofia Coppola for "The Beguiled."

"Call Me By Your Name," James Ivory
"Molly's Game," Aaron Sorkin
"The Disaster Artist," Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
"Logan," Scott Frank and James Mangold
"Mudbound," Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

"The Beguiled," Sofia Coppola

This is where things get tricky for me. Is it really possible that "Darkest Hour" gets in here over "Call Me By Your Name?" How is that possible? Well..it is. This is Deakins to lose. And if he loses it will be to Rachel Morrison. If she gets nominated. Strange to think, yes? That's how it goes. Remember, Ben Affleck might have won Best Director for "Argo" had the director's branch nominated him.

"Blade Runner: 2049," Roger Deakins
"Dunkirk," Hoyte Van Hoytema
"Mudbound," Rachel Morrison
"The Shape of Water," Dan Lausten
"Darkest Hour," Bruno Delbonnel

"Call Me By Your Name," Sayombhu Mukdeeprom

To me, the best edited film is "Baby Driver" followed by "Dunkirk." I think the editing in "Call Me By Your Name" is remarkable. Much more so than say, "Three Billboards" or "The Shape of Water," But alas, this is reality.

"Dunkirk," Lee Smith
"Baby Driver," Paul Machliss
"Get Out," Gregory Plotkin
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri," Jon Gregory
"The Shape of Water," Sidney Wolinsky

"Blade Runner 2049," Joe Walker
"Call Me By Your Name," Walter Fasano

Supporting Actor
This is where things get pretty tricky. In my mind the double nominees should be Michael Stuhlbarg and Armie Hammer from "Call Me By Your Name." See a pattern in my thinking? It's my favorite film of the year. But as buzz goes, it seems it might be Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" instead.

Sam Rockwell, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Willem Dafoe, "The Florida Project"
Michael Stuhlbarg, "Call Me By Your Name"
Woody Harrelson, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Richard Jenkins, "The Shape of Water,"

Armie Hammer, "Call Me By Your Name"

Supporting Actress
A few weeks ago, I would have sworn Hong Chau was in. She deserves to be in. But even when I was doing my simulated ballot at Awards Daily I forgot her! I wonder if I'll be the only one. I think Holly Hunter takes the 5th slot.

Alison Janney, "I, Tonya"
Laurie Metcalf, "Lady Bird"
Mary J. Blige, "Mudbound"
Octavia Spencer, "The Shape of Water"
Holly Hunter, "The Big Sick"

Hong Chau, "Downsizing"

It all comes down to that 5th slot. Everything in my being says it has to be Meryl Streep. It's always Meryl. Unless it's Jessica Chastain. I'm feeling a possibility for Michelle Williams or even Diane Kruger. We shall see!!!

Frances McDormand, "Three Billboards"
Saoirse Ronan, "Lady Bird"
Margot Robbie, "I, Tonya"
Sally Hawkins, "The Shape of Water"
Meryl Streep, "The Post"

Jessica Chastain, "Molly's Game"
Michelle Williams, "All the Money in the World"
Diane Kruger, "In the Fade"

Gary Oldman's to lose. If Franco is out, it will be either Denzel Washington, Tom Hanks or Christian Bale.

Gary Oldman, "Darkest Hour"
Timothee Chalamet, "Call Me By Your Name"
Daniel Kaluuya, "Get Out"
Daniel Day Lewis, "Phantom Thread"
James Franco, "The Disaster Artist"

Denzel Washington, "Roman Israel, Esq"
Tom Hanks, "The Post"
Christian Bale, "Hostiles"

Everything is pointing toward an exact match with the DGA. BUT...the directors branch often goes foreign and new. That being said, at this point, I'm sticking with the consensus.

Guillermo Del Toro, "The Shape of Water"
Greta Gerwig, "Lady Bird"
Martin McDonagh, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Jordan Peele, "Get Out"
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk"

Luca Guadagnino, "Call Me By Your Name"
Steven Spielberg, The Post"
Sean Baker, "The Florida Project"

What's hard about this is predicting how many will get in! Will it be 7 or 8? 9 or 10? More than likely we will have...oh who knows at this point. So let's just rank 8 for now.

"The Shape of Water"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"Lady Bird"
"Get Out"
"Call Me By Your Name"
"The Big Sick"
"Wonder Woman"

"The Post"
"I, Tonya"
"Phantom Thread"

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