Sunday, January 21, 2018

Oscar Nominations, predictions


The time has come. I've seen everything I will see other than "Phantom Thread" before nominations are announced, so here we go! Everything is in order of likelihood until the shorts. I basically guessed on those anyway.

Original Screenplay
This, along with Best Actress, are probably the deepest categories. I think this is going to be a year when my two favorite films take one prize each. And they will be screenplay. I have felt buzz for "The Big Sick" waning in the past few weeks, and have heard other people say that "The Shape of Water"'s screenplay is its weakest element. Sure...occasionally the film with the most nominations (as is expected with "The Shape of Water"misses in screenplay. But I can't see it.

"Get Out," Jordan Peele
"Lady Bird," Greta Gerwig
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri," Martin McDonagh
"The Shape of Water," Guillermo del Toro
"The Big Sick," Kmail Nanjani and Emily V. Gordon

Spoilers:
"Phantom Thread," Paul Thomas Anderson
"I, Tonya," Steven Rogers

Adapted Screenplay
This is probably the hardest one to predict. Everyone is saying that this is "Call Me By Your Name"'s to lose. But to who? Sorkin for "Molly's Game" has to come in second. There is so much love for "Mudbound," I'm thinking it's in. But don't discount Sofia Coppola for "The Beguiled."

"Call Me By Your Name," James Ivory
"Molly's Game," Aaron Sorkin
"The Disaster Artist," Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
"Logan," Scott Frank and James Mangold
"Mudbound," Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Spoiler:
"The Beguiled," Sofia Coppola

Cinematography
This is where things get tricky for me. Is it really possible that "Darkest Hour" gets in here over "Call Me By Your Name?" How is that possible? Well..it is. This is Deakins’s to lose. And if he loses it will be to Rachel Morrison. If she gets nominated. Strange to think, yes? That's how it goes. Remember, Ben Affleck might have won Best Director for "Argo" had the director's branch nominated him.

"Blade Runner: 2049," Roger Deakins
"Dunkirk," Hoyte Van Hoytema
"Mudbound," Rachel Morrison
"The Shape of Water," Dan Lausten
"Darkest Hour," Bruno Delbonnel

Spoiler:
"Call Me By Your Name," Sayombhu Mukdeeprom

Editing
To me, the best edited film of the year is "Baby Driver" followed by "Dunkirk." I think the editing in "Call Me By Your Name" is remarkable. Much more so than say, "Three Billboards" or "The Shape of Water," But alas, this is reality.

"Dunkirk," Lee Smith
"Baby Driver," Paul Machliss
"Get Out," Gregory Plotkin
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri," Jon Gregory
"The Shape of Water," Sidney Wolinsky

Spoilers:
"Blade Runner 2049," Joe Walker
"Call Me By Your Name," Walter Fasano

Supporting Actor
This is where things get pretty tricky. In my mind the double nominees should be Michael Stuhlbarg and Armie Hammer from "Call Me By Your Name." See a pattern in my thinking? It's my favorite film of the year. But as buzz goes, it seems it might be Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" instead. I love all of these performances, although, for me, Woody and (don’t kill me!) Willem Dafoe are the weakest.

Sam Rockwell, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Willem Dafoe, "The Florida Project"
Michael Stuhlbarg, "Call Me By Your Name"
Woody Harrelson, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Richard Jenkins, "The Shape of Water,"

Spoiler:
Armie Hammer, "Call Me By Your Name"

Supporting Actress
A few weeks ago, I would have sworn Hong Chau was in. She deserves to be in. But even when I was doing my simulated ballot at Awards Daily I forgot her! I wonder if I'll be the only one. I think Holly Hunter takes the 5th slot.

Alison Janney, "I, Tonya"
Laurie Metcalf, "Lady Bird"
Mary J. Blige, "Mudbound"
Octavia Spencer, "The Shape of Water"
Holly Hunter, "The Big Sick"

Spoiler:
Hong Chau, "Downsizing"

Actress
It all comes down to that 5th slot. Everything in my being says it has to be Meryl Streep. It's always Meryl. Unless it's Jessica Chastain. I'm feeling a possibility for Michelle Williams or even Diane Kruger. We shall see!!!

Frances McDormand, "Three Billboards"
Saoirse Ronan, "Lady Bird"
Margot Robbie, "I, Tonya"
Sally Hawkins, "The Shape of Water"
Meryl Streep, "The Post"

Spoilers:
Jessica Chastain, "Molly's Game"
Michelle Williams, "All the Money in the World"
Diane Kruger, "In the Fade"

Actor
Gary Oldman's to lose. If Franco is out, it will be either Denzel Washington, Tom Hanks or Christian Bale. That being said, I don’t think Franco is out.

Gary Oldman, "Darkest Hour"
Timothee Chalamet, "Call Me By Your Name"
Daniel Kaluuya, "Get Out"
Daniel Day Lewis, "Phantom Thread"
James Franco, "The Disaster Artist"

Spoilers:
Denzel Washington, "Roman Israel, Esq"
Tom Hanks, "The Post"
Christian Bale, "Hostiles"

Director
Everything is pointing toward an exact match with the DGA. BUT...the directors branch often goes foreign and new. That being said, at this point, I'm sticking with the consensus.

Guillermo Del Toro, "The Shape of Water"
Greta Gerwig, "Lady Bird"
Martin McDonagh, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Jordan Peele, "Get Out"
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk"

Spoilers:
Luca Guadagnino, "Call Me By Your Name"
Steven Spielberg, The Post"
Sean Baker, "The Florida Project"

Best Picture

The long list:

"The Shape of Water"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"Lady Bird"
"Get Out"
"Dunkirk"
"Call Me By Your Name"
"I, Tonya"
"The Big Sick"
"The Florida Project"
"Phantom Thread"

That's 10. Could this be the first time we've had 10 since the preferential ballot came into effect? Probably not. They will probably go with 8, and those 8 will be:

"The Shape of Water"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"Lady Bird"
"Get Out"
"Dunkirk"
"Call Me By Your Name"
"I, Tonya"
"The Big Sick"

That leaves the spoilers:
"The Florida Project"
"Phantom Thread"
"Mudbound"
"Darkest Hour"
"Molly's Game"
"Wonder Woman"
"The Post"

Editing
If Twitter and the internet are to be believed, most people think "Dunkirk" is going to take this and that "Baby Driver" deserves it. Long gone are the days when the Editing Oscar predicts Best Picture. That being said, I would not count out "The Shape of Water" or "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri." So what takes the 5th slot? I think it's either "Get Out" or "Blade Runner 2049." Such a tough choice, but right now, I'm feeling a late surge for "Blade Runner 2049." Maybe that surge is in my head, who knows.

"Dunkirk," Lee Smith
“Baby Driver,” Paul Machliss
“Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory
“The Shape of Water, ”Sidney Wolinsky
“Blade Runner 2049,” Joe Walker

Spoiler:
“Get Out,” Gregory Plotkin 

Sound Editing
This is a tough one. I think that “Wonder Woman” still shows up in both sound categories. And on a hunch I’m predicting “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” here. But I feel that it could really be any of the spoilers as well.

"Dunkirk"
"Baby Driver"
"War For the Planet of the Apes"
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi"
"Wonder Woman"

Spoilers:
"Logan"
"Blade Runner 2049"
“The Shape of Water”

Sound Mixing
I'm honestly guessing here, but I'm going to say that "Jedi" is out in this category and I was going to say that "The Greatest Showman" was in. Why? Apparently, the Academy likes to nominate films with music in this category. Although that has been disproven in years past. But on the FOX FYC website for the film, the sound categories aren’t even listed. Which is very, very strange. So, instead I’m going for “Blade Runner 2049.”

"Baby Driver"
"Dunkirk"
"War For the Planet of the Apes"
"Wonder Woman"
"Blade Runner 2049"

Spoilers:
“The Shape of Water”
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi"

Best Animated Feature
Will the animation branch make up for not nominating “The Lego Movie” by nominating its sequel? Probably. The only sure bets here are probably “Coco” and “Loving Vincent.” I would love to see “Birdboy” get in because it is one of my favorite films of the year. The only reason I’m predicting “Despicable Me 3” over “The Boss Baby.” Well, it’s call “The Boss Baby.” Totally thought out predictions here. J

“Coco”
“Loving Vincent”
“Despicable Me 3”
“The Breadwinner”
“Lego Batman”

Spoilers:
“The Boss Baby”
 “Birdboy: The Forgotten Children”

Documentary Feature
This is a crapshoot. I haven’t seen any of these films, which frightens me as I head into my 27 Days of Oscar series knowing I have quite a few films left to see. “Jane” appears to be the frontrunner. “Icarus” has been getting a lot of heat. If the blogaratti is to be believed, “Faces Places” is the best of the bunch. The question…is “An Inconvenient Sequel” a contender? I say it’s the spoiler for the 5th slot.

“Jane”
“Icarus”
“City of Ghosts”
“Strong Island”
“Faces Places”

Spoiler:
“An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power”

Foreign Language Film
“In the Fade” is coming in strong! This happens every year with this category. Can “A Fantastic Woman” hang on to its frontrunner status or was that all noise? Diane Kruger is amazing in “In the Fade” but I found the film to be a bit much at times. I’m going with “The Insult” as the runner up only because I’ve seen it out there in the press as of late. I should probably pick it for a nomination because this category almost always surprises, but I’m thinking the surprises already happened when narrowing to the short list.

“In the Fade”
“Foxtrot”
“The Square”
“A Fantastic Woman”
“Loveless”

Spoiler:
“The Insult”

Costume Design
Why, oh why are “Call Me By Your Name”’s costumes not in the running. They are so wonderful. Oh well…beating a dead horse here.  “Phantom Thread” is the film to beat, supposedly. Most people are predicting “Murder on the Orient Express,” but I think the Academy will jump on “The Greatest Showman” bandwagon just a bit. I think a lot of the prognosticators are blinded by their hatred of the film.

“Phantom Thread”
“Beauty and the Beast”
“Darkest Hour”
“The Greatest Showman”
“Victoria and Abdul”

Spoilers:
 “The Shape of Water”
“Murder on the Orient Express”
“I, Tonya”

Makeup and Hairstyling
I’m picking “Guardians of the Galaxy” over “Bright” only because they nominated the first film. But, don’t discount “Bright.” This branch does not care if the movie is good or not. They nominate the craft. And are also heavily swayed by a single character’s design.

“Wonder”
“Darkest Hour”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2”

Spoilers:
“Bright”
“I, Tonya”

Original Score
Desplat and Zimmer are in. Will John Williams be a double nominee or left out completely? I’m saying he gets in for both. But just ahead of Philip Glass and Dario Marianelli.

“The Shape of Water” Alexandre Desplat
“Dunkirk” Hans Zimmer
 “The Post” John Williams
“Phantom Thread” Jonny Greenwood
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,’ John Williams

Spoilers:
“Jane,” Phillilp Glass
“Darkest Hour,” Dario Marianelli

Original Song
This is a tough category! I refuse not to predict “Mystery of Love.” Out of principle. So, does Diane Warren or Mary J. Blige get in. I’m thinking Blige. Barely!

Remember Me, “Coco,” Bobby Lopez & Kristen Anderson Lopez
This is Me, “The Greatest Showman”, Benji Pasek & Justin Paul
Mystery of Love, “Call Me By Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
Evermore, “Beauty & the Beast,” Alan Menken & Tim Rice
Mighty River, “Mudbound” Mary J. Blige

Spoilers:
Stand Up for Something, “Marshall,” Diane Warren
It Ain’t Fair, “Detroit,’ The Roots
Truth to Power, “An Inconvenient Truth,” Ryan Tedder & T-Bone Burnett

Best Production Design
Not much to say here…it’s pretty much a guess that “The Post” gets in over “Beauty and the Beast.”

“The Shape of Water”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“Darkest Hour”
“The Post”

Spoiler:
“Beauty and the Beast”

Best Visual Effects
I’m guessing “The Shape of Water” gets in here based on many things. They effects are great and it will probably sweep the nominations.

“War for the Planet of the Apes”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“Star Wars: the Last Jedi”
“The Shape of Water”

Spoiler:
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”

Best Animated Short
This is total speculation. I’m going with “Garden Party” and “In a Heartbeat” because I’ve seen them. “Lou” is Pixar.  I’m going with “Cradle,” because it is the student entry, and why not?!

“Garden Party”
“In a Heartbeat”
“Lou”
“Fox and the Whale”
“Cradle”

Best Documentary Short
I hesitate to predict these, and to be honest my reasoning is a bit ridiculous. “Heroin(e)” is timely and Netflix. And what Academy member can’t relate to traffic on the 405? The rest. Pure speculation.

“Heroin(e)”
“Edith+Eddie”
“Kayayo, The Living Shopping Baskets”
“116 Cameras”
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405”

Best Live Action Short

“DeKalb Elementary”
“My Nephew Emmett”
“Witness”
“Icebox”

“The Eleven O’Clock”

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