Monday, January 22, 2018

On the eve of Oscar nominations - what could happen, what just happened and the ups and downs of social media

It’s Oscar nominations Eve, and I’m sitting in my office with no power. The best consolation to this horrible way to start a Monday is that it’s not tomorrow. I can’t imagine an Oscar nom morning with no power. Best not to go there. Not yet, I guess.

If you haven’t checked out my predictions, you can look at those below, and please do. I know there is so much content out there right now, which can be daunting or exciting depending on how you look at it.

Oscar nominations predictions

I’ve recently re-engaged with Twitter, something I do every Oscar season, and to be honest, have been having conflicting thoughts about it. Most of the people I tweeted back in the early days have a gazillion followers and have more than likely muted me as they never participate in my posts. It’s somewhat disheartening to watch others get like after like, retweet after retweet only to have my own thoughts and work sit there.

I’m guessing had I engaged in a takedown of Gary Oldman last night…or a defense of “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” I might have gained some followers. One of those early Twitter days friends mentioned to me that he had gained as many followers as I have after an all night cyber altercation that left him and all of us who followed it quite spent. Is that worth it? I’ve also joined Snapchat recently and am finding it just as daunting.

In this day and age, to get out content out there we almost certainly must utilize social media, but to be honest, if I could have my druthers I would simply see movies, write about them and live a present life. What’s ironic about that is, I do have that choice, even if it feels as if I don’t.

On the plus side, as of late I have gained some new cyber friends with whom I’ve really enjoyed discussing this season. Particularly Timothee Chalamet and “Call Me By Your Name.” (it’s nice not to be alone in my love for his performance and my obsession with the film. Shouldn’t I be happy with that? I want to enjoy the process of discussing film, not work myself up to an ulcer.

Two nights ago we had the PGA and last night the SAG Awards. Some people are saying that last night was a predictable evening. Well, if that was the case, why didn’t everyone predict things correctly?

I’m very happy that I correctly predicted “The Shape of Water” to win the PGA and “Three Billboards” to win the SAG ensemble award. I also predicted Alexander Skarsgard. I’m a bit surprised that this was a “shock.” Claire Foy = also not a shock to me. SAG likes to award on repeat. They always have.

I don’t need to get too cocky though. For one thing, I also said in my SAG preview that I couldn’t see “The Shape of Water” winning best ensemble. Well, it wasn’t even nominated!! And I had just looked at the list of nominees before typing that.

It’s been a wild Phase 1, that’s for sure.

What do these wins mean for March 4th? Well, we have 4 acting frontrunners, that’s for certain. It could be a year like 2015 or 2017 when our 4 winners are as expected-- Julianne Moore, Eddie Redmayne, JK Simmons, Patricia Arquette (2015) and Casey Affleck, Emma Stone, Mahershala Ali, Viola Davis (2017)…and yes, Redmayne was expected. Maybe not in the EARLY part of Phase 1, but rather quickly it became clear. Or it could be a year like 2016 when Mark Rylance got in instead of Stallone. Or when Adrien Brody won back in 2003. Although I predicted that one as well. You just never know with surprises. They are hard to predict. That’s why they are surprises.

And for Best Picture? Just last week I was interviewed for North MS Spotlight with Gary Darby and asked what I thought was the Best Picture frontrunner. I said “The Shape of Water.” But I also said a few weeks ago that I would not fall for the trap (like last year with “La La Land” and the year before with “The Revenant”) of predicting a Best Picture win for a film not nominated for the SAG Best Ensemble award. That means it’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” for the win. Right?

There is a truth that many of us have somewhat forgotten. Nominations haven’t even happened yet. And wild things can happen.

Someone will be snubbed tomorrow. It will happen, and it will hurt. I’m guessing it might happen in the Directing category. Jordan Peele, Greta Gerwig…either one could be left out. I’m hoping Luca Guadagnino gets in…and for that to happen someone gets snubbed.

Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg could both be left out. And either one would be so difficult. Particularly Stuhlbarg who delivers one of the most powerful performances in a matter of minutes I have ever seen.

But that’s how this thing goes. An actress will also be snubbed. Will it be Meryl Streep or Jessica Chastain? Will it be something even more painful, like a Sally Hawkins snub? What about Rachel Morrison for Cinematography? Or even “Dekalb Elementary” for Live Action Short. Or worse, Timothee Chalamet? This time tomorrow we will know.

Tomorrow I will get the nominees posted as quickly as possible and then discuss what was snubbed and what surprised…what it (supposedly) means and then move on. Tonight I will see “Phantom Thread” and I will publish my Top 10 Films of the year tomorrow, as well as make a list of the films to see before Oscar night. I am also a voting member of Film Independent and a member of GALECA (Dorian Awards) and will have many films to watch for those nominations as well.

My personal plea for tomorrow:

Luca Guadagnino for Best Director

Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg for Best Supporting Actor

Rachel Morrison for Best Cinematography

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