Saturday, January 6, 2018

My thoughts on the PGA and Golden Globes predictions


Good morning Oscarwatchers! Today, I'm heading to Memphis once again to see "Molly's Game" and "Coco." Yes..."Coco" has left Oxford, but that's ok. Next week I will watch "All the Money in the World," "Wonder" and "Downsizing" and will be pretty much caught up with the movies actually in the theater. That is until "The Post," "Phantom Thread," "I, Tonya" and "Call Me By Your Name" come out.

Yesterday we had the PGA nominations come down, and in an exciting surprise, there were 11 films nominated, not 10. In a year where anything can happen, it has. 

These nominations certainly mean more this year than in year's past because the Academy has only ONE WEEK to submit their nominations. In terms of influence we had the PGA, Golden Globes on Sunday, Cinema Audio Society on the 10th and finally, the DGA nominations on the 11th, the day before ballots are due. The DGA nominations could certainly make a difference. I believe that Academy members do one of two things. They submitted their nominees yesterday or they will wait until the 12th. Why? Because that's the psychology of most people. And believe it or not, even though Hollywood types are a special beast, they are still beasts/people. 

Let's look at the PGA.


The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures:

The Big Sick
Producers: Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel

Call Me By Your Name
Producers: Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, Marco Morabito

Dunkirk
Producers: Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan

Get Out
Producers: Sean McKittrick & Edward H. Hamm, Jr., Jason Blum, Jordan Peele

I, Tonya
Producers: Bryan Unkeless, Steven Rogers, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley

Lady Bird
Producers: Scott Rudin, Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill

Molly’s Game
Producers: Mark Gordon, Amy Pascal, Matt Jackson

The Post
Producers: Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg, Kristie Macosko Krieger

The Shape Of Water
Producers: Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Producers: Graham Broadbent & Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh

Wonder Woman
Producers: Charles Roven & Richard Suckle, Zack Snyder & Deborah Snyder

I missed all three of the wild cards, "I, Tonya," "Molly's Game" and "Wonder Woman," instead going with "The Florida Project" and "Baby Driver." The tea leaves were pointing toward "I, Tonya" (not sure why I forgot to put it in my possible spoilers. That was an accident. But, oh well!) and "Molly's Game," but I didn't want to give up hope for a last minute push for "Baby Driver." Unfortunately, I believe it to be out of the Best Picture race. As for "The Florida Project?" I think it's out as well. But we'll see what the DGA does. What about "Phantom Thread" and "Mudbound?" Who knows. The Academy didn't nominate "The Master" for Picture and they didn't nominate "Beasts of No Nation" (another Netflix film). Are they boycotting Netflix? Maybe. Maybe not. Sometimes I think that when things don't make sense to us, we give the unexplainable and explanation. 

I was so happy to see "Call Me By Your Name" get in. I hope the Academy will nominate it as well as Luca Guadagnino. I'm beginning to think that Sony Pictures Classics is ignoring my emails because they know that I will keep on writing about it. Now that I work in PR myself, it makes me wonder what their tactic is. Maybe they are waiting for the nomination. 

In terms of Animation. What a sad lot this is. No "Bird Boy: The Forgotten Children." No "Loving Vincent." No "The Breadwinner." 

The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:

The Boss Baby
Producer: Ramsey Naito

Coco
Producer: Darla K. Anderson

Despicable Me 3
Producers: Chris Meledandri, Janet Healy

Ferdinand
Producers: Lori Forte, Bruce Anderson

The Lego Batman Movie
Producers: Dan Lin, Phil Lord & Christopher Miller


OK. As much as I dread this, let's predict the Golden Globes. I can absolutely see myself missing in every category. Not going to do "Should wins." I can't do that not considering "Call Me By Your Name." 

Movies
Best Motion Picture - Drama
"Call Me by Your Name"
"Dunkirk"
"The Post"
"The Shape of Water"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

This is so difficult. But let's go with "Dunkirk." I think with "Get Out" out of the picture, it wins. But it will coule be "Three Billboards." or "The Shape of Water." 

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
"The Disaster Artist"
"Get Out"
"The Greatest Showman"
"I, Tonya"
"Lady Bird"

This is the big showdown of the night. Will it be "Get Out" or "Lady Bird." Let's go with "Get Out."

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Jessica Chastain, "Molly's Game"
Sally Hawkins, "The Shape of Water"
Frances McDormand, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Meryl Streep, "The Post"
Michelle Williams, "All the Money in the World"

Another tough one. But I'm thinking Frances McDormand gets in over Hawkins and Chastain. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Timothée Chalamet, "Call Me by Your Name"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Phantom Thread"
Tom Hanks, "The Post"
Gary Oldman, "Darkest Hour"
Denzel Washington, "Roman J. Israel, Esq."

This is one that is so difficult. It reminds me of when I didn't want to predict Philip Seymour Hoffman. But how could I not. And that's why I will go with Gary Oldman, hoping for Chalamet.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Judi Dench, "Victoria & Abdul"
Margot Robbie, "I, Tonya"
Saoirse Ronan, "Lady Bird"
Emma Stone, "Battle of the Sexes"
Helen Mirren, "The Leisure Seeker"

Could be Dench. But I'm thinking this is when the Saoirse sweep really begins. That's how Best Actress works. 

Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, "The Shape of Water"
Martin McDonagh, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Christopher Nolan, "Dunkirk"
Ridley Scott, "All The Money in the World"
Steven Spielberg, "The Post"

I hate to say it, but Christopher Nolan simply comes off cold and unlikeable. But del Toro is delightful and directed a fantastic film. It's his time. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Steve Carell, "Battle of the Sexes"
Ansel Elgort, "Baby Driver"
James Franco, "The Disaster Artist"
Hugh Jackman, "The Greatest Showman"
Daniel Kaluuya, "Get Out"

It's Franco's. Unless they really liked "Get Out," which would be awesome. Love Kaluuya.

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Mary J. Blige, "Mudbound"
Hong Chau, "Downsizing"
Allison Janney, "I, Tonya"
Laurie Metcalf, "Lady Bird"
Octavia Spencer, "The Shape of Water"

Maybe this is the year they go wonky with supporting actress instead of actor. Maybe not. I'm thinking Laurie Metcalf will will for "Lady Bird." Allison Janney has been nominated 5 times before and never won. What does that mean? I'm not sure it means anything actually. 

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Willem Dafoe, "The Florida Project"
Armie Hammer, "Call Me by Your Name"
Richard Jenkins, "The Shape of Water"
Christopher Plummer, "All the Money in the World"
Sam Rockwell, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
So, this is probably where they will get weird, right? Should I predict something really crazy? Sure. Let's do it. If I'm doing crazy, Plummer would make the most sense, but let's go with Armie Hammer.

Best Original Score in a Motion Picture
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"The Shape of Water"
"Phantom Thread"
"The Post"
"Dunkirk"

I've never really been a fan of Hans Zimmer, but I love the score to "Dunkirk."

Best Screenplay in a Motion Picture
"The Shape of Water"
"Lady Bird"
"The Post"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"Molly's Game"

Hmmm...will they go with Greta Gerwig here? Maybe. I've mentioned before that although I really liked "Lady Bird" I didn't LOVE it. I can't be alone, right? Let's go with McDonagh. If "Three Billboards" wins Picture, Gerwig will probably win here. 

Best Motion Picture - Foreign Language
"A Fantastic Woman"
"First They Killed My Father"
"In the Fade"
"Loveless"
"The Square"

I'm going with Angelina Jolie.

Best Animated Film
"The Boss Baby"
"The Breadwinner"
"Ferdinand"
"Coco"
"Loving Vincent"
Coco. Why? Because that's what everyone else is saying, and I haven't seen any of the others. One day I hope we'll have a film along the lines of "The Breadwinner" win. 

As you can see, I'm running out of steam, so I'm just going to predict TV. No explanation necessary. 

TV
Best TV series - Drama
"The Crown"
"Game of Thrones"
"The Handmaid's Tale"
"Stranger Things"
"This Is Us"
Best performance by Actress in a TV series - Drama
Caitriona Balfe, "Outlander"
Claire Foy, "The Crown"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "The Deuce"
Katherine Langford, "13 Reasons Why"
Elisabeth Moss, "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best performance by an Actor in a TV Series - Drama
Sterling K. Brown, "This is Us"
Freddie Highmore, "The Good Doctor"
Bob Odenkirk, "Better Call Saul"
Liev Schreiber, "Ray Donovan"
Jason Bateman, "Ozark"
Best TV series - Musical or Comedy
"Black-ish"
"Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"
"Master of None"
"SMILF"
"Will & Grace"
Best performance by an Actor in a TV series - Musical or Comedy
Anthony Anderson, "Black-ish"
Aziz Ansari "Master of None"
Kevin Bacon, "I Love Dick"
William H. Macy, "Shameless"
Eric McCormack, "Will and Grace"
Best performance by an Actress in a TV series - Musical or Comedy
Pamela Adlon, "Better Things"
Alison Brie, "Glow"
Issa Rae, "Insecure"
Rachel Brosnahan, "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"
Frankie Shaw, "SMILF"
Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
"Big Little Lies"
"Fargo"
"Feud: Bette and Joan"
"The Sinner"
"Top of the Lake: China Girl"
Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Robert De Niro, "The Wizard of Lies"
Jude Law, "The Young Pope"
Kyle MacLachlan, "Twin Peaks"
Ewan McGregor, "Fargo"
Geoffrey Rush, "Genius"
Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Jessica Biel, "The Sinner"
Nicole Kidman, "Big Little Lies"
Jessica Lange, "Feud: Bette and Joan"
Susan Sarandon, "Feud: Bette and Joan"
Reese Witherspoon, "Big Little Lies"
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Alfred Molina, "Feud"
Alexander Skarsgard, "Big Little Lies"
David Thewlis, "Fargo"
David Harbour, "Stranger Things"
Christian Slater, "Mr. Robot"
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Laura Dern, "Big Little Lies"
Ann Dowd, "The Handmaid's Tale"
Chrissy Metz, "This is Us"
Michelle Pfeiffer, "The Wizard of Lies"
Shailene Woodley, "Big Little Lies"

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