Tuesday, January 9, 2018
BAFTAS, a quick analysis; Do we finally have frontrunners?
The Bafta nominations came out late last night, and on first glance I felt that they had cemented the fact that this is a wild Oscar season where anything can happen. We've said that in years before, but this year seems particularly exciting. Partly because the Best Picture race has been so unclear.
With the Bafta noms we saw Best Director love for Luca Guadagnino for "Call Me By Your Name" (thank goodness!) as well as Denis Villeneuve for "Blade Runner 2049" but no directing nomination for Greta Gerwig. No Best Picture nomination for "Lady Bird" either. Same for "Get Out." I'm ok with the "Lady Bird" snub (in my not so humble opinion it's not one of the best 5 films of the year) but "Get Out" is genius and should absolutely be awarded.
But if you look closely, things might actually be settling down. J. Don Birnam from Splash Report made a great point last night on Twitter. "Get Out," "Call Me By Your Name" and "Lady Bird" have strong support from various individual groups, but get left out on others. I would say that "Lady Bird" comes a bit closer toward frontrunner status.
But now, just 24 hours away from the last time that I published, I wonder. Will the Academy give Greta Gerwig a Best Director Oscar simply because she's a woman after years and years of not even nominating women? Or will they leave her out all together and nominate Luca Guadagnino. There is some last minute buzz for "Mudbound" with Barbara Streisand championing it on Twitter, but I don't think that will translate into a nomination for Dee Rees. I think Mary J. Blige is in, however, for Best Supporting Actress.
They Baftas are still the Baftas though. Nominating Hugh Grant for Paddington 2 over Michael Stuhlbarg and Armie Hammer for "Call Me By Your Name" is just a little, well, British.
They also really loved "Darkest Hour," a film I wasn't too keen on. Especially Kristin Scott Thomas. Nominating her for Supporting Actress is so very strange to me. I think she's pretty bad in it.
On the positive side, I'm glad to see them nominate "God's Own Country" for British Film.
Anyway, back to the original point. No matter the entity it seems that "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri," save for the National Board of Review and "The Shape of Water" are the strongest contenders. Also, don't believe the hype that "Three Billboards" is this hated film. Critics loved it. It won the audience award at Toronto. I loved it! It is liked.
That being said, I think it's:
"Three Billboards" for BP
"The Shape of Water" for director.
Greta for Screenplay.
Luca for Screenplay.
Then we have a real race in the acting categories.
Actor: Oldman v/s Chalamet
Actress: Saoirse v/s McDormand
Supporting actor: Dafoe v/s Rockwell
Supporting actress: Metcalf v/s Janney
Although, even in those categories I think we have leaders. Oldman, McDormand, Rockwell and Metcalf.
But it could honestly go many ways. Remember the Academy is up to almost 9,000 members now. They might lean toward Chalamet and Saoirse. We shall see.
I wanted to touch base on a few other things here. First of all, I haven't talked about seeing "Molly's Game" on the site, and yesterday I watched "Battle of the Sexes." This afternoon I will see "All the Money in the World," so I think I'll get into that a bit later today. Maybe an "Actresses on the fringe of a nomination" piece. 2 pieces in one day at Awards Wiz?! Yeah...things are heating up for sure.
Here are the full Baftas. Took this from Awards Daily.
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Emilie Georges, Luca Guadagnino, Marco Morabito, Peter Spears
DARKEST HOUR Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski
DUNKIRK Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
THE SHAPE OF WATER Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
DARKEST HOUR Joe Wright, Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski
THE DEATH OF STALIN Armando Iannucci, Kevin Loader, Laurent Zeitoun, Yann Zenou, Ian Martin, David Schneider
GOD’S OWN COUNTRY Francis Lee, Manon Ardisson, Jack Tarling
LADY MACBETH William Oldroyd, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly, Alice Birch
PADDINGTON 2 Paul King, David Heyman, Simon Farnaby
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
THE GHOUL Gareth Tunley (Writer/Director/Producer), Jack Healy Guttman & Tom Meeten (Producers)
I AM NOT A WITCH Rungano Nyoni (Writer/Director), Emily Morgan (Producer)
JAWBONE Johnny Harris (Writer/Producer), Thomas Napper (Director)
KINGDOM OF US Lucy Cohen (Director)
LADY MACBETH Alice Birch (Writer), William Oldroyd (Director), Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly (Producer)
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
ELLE Paul Verhoeven, Saïd Ben Saïd
FIRST THEY KILLED MY FATHER Angelina Jolie, Rithy Panh
THE HANDMAIDEN Park Chan-wook, Syd Lim
LOVELESS Andrey Zvyagintsev, Alexander Rodnyansky
THE SALESMAN Asghar Farhadi, Alexandre Mallet-Guy
CITY OF GHOSTS Matthew Heineman
I AM NOT YOUR NEGRO Raoul Peck
ICARUS Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
AN INCONVENIENT SEQUEL Bonni Cohen, Jon Shenk
JANE Brett Morgen
COCO Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
LOVING VINCENT Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Ivan Mactaggart
MY LIFE AS A COURGETTE Claude Barras, Max Karli
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Denis Villeneuve
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Luca Guadagnino
DUNKIRK Christopher Nolan
THE SHAPE OF WATER Guillermo del Toro
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Martin McDonagh
GET OUT Jordan Peele
I, TONYA Steven Rogers
LADY BIRD Greta Gerwig
THE SHAPE OF WATER Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Martin McDonagh
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME James Ivory
THE DEATH OF STALIN Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, David Schneider
FILM STARS DON’T DIE IN LIVERPOOL Matt Greenhalgh
MOLLY’S GAME Aaron Sorkin
PADDINGTON 2 Simon Farnaby, Paul King
ANNETTE BENING Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
FRANCES McDORMAND Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
MARGOT ROBBIE I, Tonya
SALLY HAWKINS The Shape of Water
SAOIRSE RONAN Lady Bird
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS Phantom Thread
DANIEL KALUUYA Get Out
GARY OLDMAN Darkest Hour
JAMIE BELL Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET Call Me by Your Name
ALLISON JANNEY I, Tonya
KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS Darkest Hour
LAURIE METCALF Lady Bird
LESLEY MANVILLE Phantom Thread
OCTAVIA SPENCER The Shape of Water
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER All the Money in the World
HUGH GRANT Paddington 2
SAM ROCKWELL Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
WILLEM DAFOE The Florida Project
WOODY HARRELSON Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Benjamin Wallfisch, Hans Zimmer
DARKEST HOUR Dario Marianelli
DUNKIRK Hans Zimmer
PHANTOM THREAD Jonny Greenwood
THE SHAPE OF WATER Alexandre Desplat
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Roger Deakins
DARKEST HOUR Bruno Delbonnel
DUNKIRK Hoyte van Hoytema
THE SHAPE OF WATER Dan Laustsen
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Ben Davis
BABY DRIVER Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Joe Walker
DUNKIRK Lee Smith
THE SHAPE OF WATER Sidney Wolinsky
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Jon Gregory
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
DARKEST HOUR Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
DUNKIRK Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
THE SHAPE OF WATER Paul Austerberry, Jeff Melvin, Shane Vieau
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST Jacqueline Durran
DARKEST HOUR Jacqueline Durran
I, TONYA Jennifer Johnson
PHANTOM THREAD Mark Bridges
THE SHAPE OF WATER Luis Sequeira
MAKE UP & HAIR
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Donald Mowat, Kerry Warn
DARKEST HOUR David Malinowski, Ivana Primorac, Lucy Sibbick, Kazuhiro Tsuji
I, TONYA Deborah La Mia Denaver, Adruitha Lee
VICTORIA & ABDUL Daniel Phillips
WONDER Naomi Bakstad, Robert A. Pandini, Arjen Tuiten
BABY DRIVER Tim Cavagin, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Mark Mangini, Mac Ruth
DUNKIRK Richard King, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo, Mark Weingarten
THE SHAPE OF WATER Christian Cooke, Glen Gauthier, Nathan Robitaille, Brad Zoern
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Stuart Wilson, Matthew Wood
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Gerd Nefzer, John Nelson
DUNKIRK Scott Fisher, Andrew Jackson
THE SHAPE OF WATER Dennis Berardi, Trey Harrell, Kevin Scott
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI Nominees tbc
WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES Nominees tbc
BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION
HAVE HEART Will Anderson
MAMOON Ben Steer
POLES APART Paloma Baeza, Ser En Low
BRITISH SHORT FILM
AAMIR Vika Evdokimenko, Emma Stone, Oliver Shuster
COWBOY DAVE Colin O’Toole, Jonas Mortensen
A DROWNING MAN Mahdi Fleifel, Signe Byrge Sørensen, Patrick Campbell
WORK Aneil Karia, Scott O’Donnell
WREN BOYS Harry Lighton, Sorcha Bacon, John Fitzpatrick
EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)
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