Friday, January 19, 2018

A quick look at PGA, SAG; another look at Best Picture nomination predictions

Today I finally get to see "Call Me By Your Name" in the theater. Although I've seen it 3 times now (yes, I know) I'm looking incredibly forward to the theatrical experience. That being said, watching the Film Independent screener on the new 55inch telly wasn't so bad.

Last night I watched "A Fantastic Woman," the Spanish shortlisted foreign film directed by Sebasti├ín Lelio and starring Daniela Vega. More on that in the coming days as I put together my piece for Awards Daily on Queer Cinema. I honestly have no clue exactly what that piece is going to look like, so it may take a bit of time to piece together.

This weekend is going to be a big one heading into Tuesday's Oscar nominations. First, tomorrow we have the PGA Awards. And Sunday the Screen Actors Guild Awards. There are so many ways this could go down that I almost hesitate making any predictions. PGA could certainly go with "Lady Bird." Greta Gerwig has some heat right now. The film is liked by everyone, even if not loved (I fall into this camp), and the PGA uses a preferential ballot, just like the Academy does. That means we are probably looking at "Lady Bird" or "The Shape of Water" as the winner. "Call Me By Your Name," "Get Out" and "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" are more than likely too divisive. Although, if "Three Billboards" wins, we might need to consider the divisiveness is within the press/blogoratti and not the industry.

In terms of SAG, well, I think they will go with "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" or "Mudbound." The Shape of Water" can’t win for ensemble (not nominated) and I can't see them going for "Get Out," although that would be amazing. And I guess you can't count out "Lady Bird." "The Big Sick" could happen as well. Don't be surprised if anything wins. I have friends who are SAG members who honestly try to vote for the best ensemble, although you wouldn't believe that if you read what Oscar progs have to say about the award.

What will certain wins mean?

Facebook showed me a memory this morning where I said that if "American Hustle" won the SAG awards for Best Ensemble back in 2013/2014 that it would tell us something about the race. I think what I was trying to say was that it would mean that "12 Years a Slave" was vulnerable even though "Gravity" didn't have a SAG nomination. Perhaps I was right. "American Hustle" won and there was a Picture/Director split at the Oscars. ("12 Years a Slave"/Alfonso Cuaron) That being said, since 2012 we have had a Picture/Director split every year, except for the "Birdman"/Inarritu year. So, who knows.

This could be the year we go back to that. If "The Shape of Water" wins Best Picture.

But again, who knows?!

I could be wrong here, but almost every Oscar season we start with a couple of buzzy films which get interrupted by noise/story only to end with those same original films as the true frontrunners in the end.

Those two films were "The Shape of Water" and "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri." And even though "Get Out" and "Call Me By Your Name" have been strongly championed at various points over the last year, they haven't been the Oscar Story. Now..."Lady Bird" could be the noise that breaks through. Somewhat like the year the Affleck snub pushed the "Argo" noise through to the finish line. We shall see.

I've been thinking a bit about my predictions, something I will post on either Sunday or Monday morning (subject to quick revision after I see "Phantom Thread" on Monday night.) I had put "Wonder Woman" down, but the more I think about the preferential ballot, I simply can't see people putting it as their number one film. I just can't. "The Florida Project?" Sure. But will 150/200 people put it as their number one? Will they do the same for "I, Tonya?" It's so hard to say.  Let's look at what I said a few days ago.

In order of likelihood

"The Shape of Water"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"Lady Bird"
"Get Out"
"Dunkirk"
"Call Me By Your Name"
"The Big Sick"
"Wonder Woman"

spoilers:
"Mudbound"
"The Post"
"I, Tonya"
"Phantom Thread"

I think "Wonder Woman" is gone, for sure. I think "The Post" is gone. I know others are predicting it, but I just can't see it happening. We don't need to forget about "Molly's Game" however. It got a PGA nominations...but the PGA is not the Academy. And I guess I need to consider "Darkest Hour" as well. It has BAFTA love and Joe Wright's "Atonement" made it in without almost any other Best Picture love earlier in its season, and that was with 5 nominations. 

I think these are my predictions in order of likelihood:

"The Shape of Water"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"Lady Bird"
"Get Out"
"Dunkirk"
"Call Me By Your Name"
"I, Tonya"
"The Big Sick"
"The Florida Project"
"Phantom Thread"

That's 10. Could this be the first time we've had 10 since the preferential ballot came into effect? Probably not. They will probably go with 8, and those 8 will be:

"The Shape of Water"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"Lady Bird"
"Get Out"
"Dunkirk"
"Call Me By Your Name"
"I, Tonya"
"The Big Sick"

That leaves the spoilers:
"The Florida Project"
"Phantom Thread"
"Mudbound"
"Darkest Hour"
"Molly's Game"
"Wonder Woman"
"The Post"

Not my final answer! :) 

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