Predicting the Oscar nominations



I was thinking about my piece on "Deadpool" while watching "Captain Fantastic." I personally do not feel that "Deadpool" has any business in the Oscar conversation, but the campaign is everywhere. It is undeniable. And although I don't think it will get in for Picture or Adapted Screenplay, I do believe that it will have a presence.

I thoroughly enjoyed "Captain Fantastic," and Viggo is good. But I don't think it is one of the top 5 performances of the year. Joel Edgerton is better. Adam Driver is probably better in "Patterson." But I have to remember that this is the Academy.

Whether or not Annette Bening is better than Meryl Streep does not matter.  (As of publication, I have still not seen "20th Century Women." The screener is supposed to be on the way, but luckily, it is playing in Memphis, and I will see it tonight and update accordingly.)  This is the voting body that gave "Crash" Best Picture over Brokeback Mountain. The group that didn't nominate "Boogie Nights" for Best Picture. Quality does matter. Some (including myself) would argue that the Academy nominates what they think is the best with no other baggage. I believe that they believe that.

I'm going to take a few risks here because why not. Otherwise there is no chance for bragging rights.

I wanted very much to only choose 8 films for Best Picture, based solely on a gut feeling, but looking at Best Director I started to reevaluate things. While it seems to many that Garth Davis is in for "Lion," the Academy and the DGA generally do not match up. I would like to go super risky and pick Paul Verhoeven for "Elle" but I think Denzel is going to get in. And that means "Fences" gets in for picture as well.

I also think that "Nocturnal Animals" will see more love than some of my colleagues do. I think that Aaron Taylor-Johnson gets in over Hugh Grant and that the screenplay gets in over both "Loving" and "Deadpool." (This could certainly be a miss.)

In the Animated Feature category, I'm going with "My Life as a Zucchini for the 5th slot, which means something is going to be left out. Will it be "Finding Dory," "The Red Turtle," "Kubo," or "Moana?" We shall see. It could also be "Zootopia." Being the frontrunner in this category doesn't always mean a nomination. Ask "The Lego Movie."

I'm taking a risk with Makeup & Hairstyling as well. Just last year the team behind "A Man Called Ove" shocked by getting in for "100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared." I think they will repeat.

Documentary is going to be a hard one as well. As much as I would love to see "Weiner" get in, I think that it will lose the 5th slot (along with "Life Animated") in lieu of "The Ivory Game." Netflix should not be denied or underestimated.

And finally, the record. Will "La La Land" tie for the most Oscar nominations ever? It needs to get in for Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. If it does, it should tie "Titanic" and "All About Eve" with 14.

For what it's worth, here are my picks.

BEST PICTURE

La La Land
Moonlight
Arrival
Manchester by the Sea

Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Fences
Lion

BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Denzel Washington, Fences

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Denzel Washington, Fences
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

BEST ACTRESS

Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Hell or High Water
20th Century Women
The Lobster

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Moonlight
Fences
Hidden Figures
Arrival
Nocturnal Animals

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Toni Erdmann (Germany)
The Salesman (Iran)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
Land of Mine (Denmark)
My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

BEST FILM EDITING

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

La La Land
Hail Caesar!
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Silence
The Jungle Book

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Jackie
Love & Friendship

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
A Man Called Ove

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Finding Dory
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Runnin’,” Hidden Figures
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

La La Land
Lion
Jackie
Moonlight
The BFG

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

13th
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro
O.J.: Made in America
The Ivory Game

BEST SOUND MIXING

Arrival
Deadpool
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

BEST SOUND EDITING

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Comments

Popular Posts