Thoughts on the Golden Globes, SAG Award and Oscar Nominations

It used to be that the Golden Globes offered a glimpse of what was to come for the Academy Awards. But in the last ten years, that’s really started to change. Looking back over the last ten years, I’d say the chances have become more 50/50 that a winner will score both trophies. The ballots were all in by the time the Globes were handed out, so the Oscar nominations (announced tomorrow morning) can’t be affected, but perhaps some of the results of the night could influence the Academy’s voting?

I had two conversations in the days before the Golden Globes about the Supporting Actress
category. “Right now it seems to be Jennifer Lawrence’s to lose, even though she ranks 4th among the nominees in my opinion.” They didn’t believe me. Well, sometimes I know what I’m talking about. She is so endearing, even in her speeches that it seems inevitable we’ll be seeing her name again tomorrow. But Lupita Nyong'o looked so stunning in her gown (see above), it was hard to look away from her. Combined with some wonderful interviews recently, the Academy may be getting their first chance to distinguish the actress from the character, showing just how wonderful she is in the film. Could that turn the tides back in her favor?

The Globes have always had a party atmosphere, but was it just me that saw that ramped up last night? It seemed possible there was more than champagne and vodka at some of those tables. How seriously does the Academy see themselves these days? Was Matthew McConaughey’s “Alright, alright” persona charming or off-putting? Was Cate Blanchett’s barbiturates joke hysterical or in bad taste? Surely, both of these will be getting Oscar nominations for their roles, but have they in any way endangered their chances of a win?

Leonardo DiCaprio has long since been overlooked (rightly or wrongly) by the Academy, so his shot at an Oscar nomination isn’t guaranteed. His second Golden Globe win comes among ten nominations, significantly more than his three Oscar nods. In his favor, his first Best Actor nomination (for “The Aviator”) came after his first Globe win and the second came after his double GG nominations (for both “Blood Diamond” and “The Departed”). If the Academy, that seems to feel itself socially conscious these days, does honor DiCaprio with a nomination, would they be offended by his thanking Belfort in his acceptance speech?

Meanwhile, the deadline for SAG Award voting is Friday. Since I’ve talked a bit this year about how voters see different films and how that may affect the outcomes, I thought I’d share some thoughts on what the studios have been doing. As you might expect, TWC offered as many chances to see “August: Osage County” as possible. In addition to a digital download and screener, there were several opportunities to see screenings of it. Disney, on the other hand, did not make “Saving Mr. Banks” available in any format, other than a couple of advance screenings that weren’t publicized to the voters. It’s highly doubtful that Emma Thompson’s fantastic performance will be awarded, considering the other four nominees films were all made available in at least one format. TWC started off strong by offering several screenings and multiple ways to see “The Butler,” but as their buzz began to drop off, it seems they’ve given up completely. The only other acting nominee not to have any version of his film available was “Rush,” which is also up for Stunt Ensemble.” Thankfully, two of the television movies (which, being on cable, I hadn’t seen) were also made available—“Betty & Coretta” and “Burton & Taylor.”

Because a majority of the Academy are actors, the SAG awards tend to be more strongly correlated to the Oscars. So, tune in on Saturday to see what may happen!

The 20th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards® will be simulcast live nationally on TNT and TBS on Saturday, Jan. 18, 2014 at 8 p.m. (ET)/5 p.m. (PT) from the Los Angeles Shrine Exposition Center. An encore performance will air immediately following on TNT at 10 p.m. (ET)/7 p.m. (PT). A live stream of the SAG Awards can also be viewed online through the TBS and TNT websites, as well as through the Watch TBS and Watch TNT apps for iOS or Android. 


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